On 23 June, the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU, but the majority of voters in Scotland opted for Remain. Scotland now faces a choice, and soon: 'hard Brexit' within the UK, independence in the EU, or a special deal that gives Scotland individual membership of the single market.

This paper analyses the latest political developments, sets out a series of scenarios for Scotland, and lays out recommendations to decision-makers in Edinburgh, London and Brussels.