Designing an appropriate system of benefits and social protection is an important task for any modern state. The first thing the White Paper does is set out the broad principles that the Scottish Government says would guide its long-term approach in an independent Scotland. These include the better integrating the design of taxes, benefits and public services, and an emphasis on a ‘preventative approach’ that is hoped to reduce costs and improve outcomes. These are laudable aims. But they are also uncontroversial and the UK Government would say that it is committed to the same approach – for instance, in its efforts to tackle child poverty. The difficulty is translating these aims into specific policies– and this task has largely been postponed.

But there are a number of specific proposals for more immediate reform. Some we have heard before, such as “abolishing the bedroom tax” at a cost of £50 million per year. Others are new, such as halts to the roll out of Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payments. Those already on Universal Credit would be able to have Housing Benefit paid as a separate benefit directly to landlords and split the rest of Universal Credit between different people rather than receive is as a single household payment, tackling two major criticisms of the new system. And earnings disregards for first and second earners would also be equalised. These changes are a substantial departure from the recent direction of travel for the UK benefit system, and are planned to continue under longer-term reforms.

The White Paper unsurprisingly highlights the winners but there would also likely be losers – including those who would have gained under the halted Universal Credit.  However, on average, these reforms– and those planned for pensions and benefits for the elderly – would be a giveaway to households and would cost the Scottish government money. IFS research suggests that even if oil revenues rebound strongly during the first few years of independence, an independent Scotland would need to raise taxes or cut spending by more than the UK in the longer term. Increasing benefit spending would make this task harder and it would not be surprising if the government of an independent Scotland felt the need to cut rather than increase the generosity of at least some benefits to help balance its books.   

This piece was originally published at BBC News Viewpoints.