Brad MacKay introduces a short film which presents two stories – two possible scenarios of any number of different possibilities.

The September 18^th, 2014 referendum vote on independence in Scotland raises a range of questions about what might happen afterwards. Uncertainty has been a hallmark of the constitutional debate. What might a ‘no’ vote mean? And what are the implications of a ‘yes’ vote? While the future is unpredictable, some of the forces that are likely to shape it – be they political, economic, social, technological or legal – are relatively well understood. The difficulty is in understanding how some of these forces might interact in complex and unpredictable ways.

Scenarios are not predictions. They are stories about how the future could evolve, rather than forecasts about how the future will evolve.  They are a device for learning, planning and stimulating positive debate about the future. They are built by looking at those things that we know quite a bit about and are likely to happen – the certainties – and those things that are genuinely uncertain – the uncertainties – and then exploring how they might interact to create unexpected futures. One would never expect a scenario to come about exactly as it has been written. This would undermine the premise on which they are built, which is that the future is unpredictable. But good scenarios would give a better idea for how the things we know to be certain, and those that are uncertain, might interact to produce different worlds. Scenarios deal with the world of possibilities and potentialities, not forecasts or predictions.

There are any number of possible scenarios for Scotland, the UK and Europe that could materialise following the September 18^th, 2014 referendum vote on Scottish independence. It will depend on whether it is a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ vote, and how the negotiations, behaviours of those negotiating, national interests and public opinion in Scotland, the UK and Europe unfold. No matter whether it is a ‘yes’ or a ‘no’ vote, there will be twists and turns, highs and lows, junctures and turning points on the road ahead. The outcome cannot be predicted. It is uncertain. But some of the possibilities can be better understood.

The following short film is politically neutral. For this reason we have used a ‘foreign’ accent. The films are not designed to support either the case for Scottish independence or remaining part of the United Kingdom. Their purpose is to illustrate, at times in a humorous way, some of the ways that certainties and uncertainties might interact. The film simply presents two stories – two possible scenarios of any number of different possibilities.