With 100 days to go to the referendum, what can we expect to hear from the two campaigns about the business case for independence or the Union in the debate?

Significant amounts of evidence from independent research interviews and surveys suggest that the business risks associated with the independence referendum are very specific and, at present, appear to outweigh the opportunities by some margin. This is particularly the case for businesses with significant amounts of trade in the rUK. The campaign for staying with the Union is likely, therefore, to continue to emphasise business uncertainty and the relative economic security of staying with the UK. If the polls continue to narrow, there will also continue to be the occasional intervention by business leaders of larger enterprises who feel compelled, and whose business interests are secure enough to raise questions about the implications of independence for their businesses. In such circumstances, increasing numbers of businesses will also be developing contingency plans.

The campaign in favour of independence will continue to either dismiss such concerns as ‘bluff and bluster’, corporate bullying from London, or to emphasise the uncertainties of the 2015 general election, such as a Conservative-UKIP coalition (the current flavour of the month) and an in-out referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU. They will also maintain that the rUK’s position on issues like a currency union will change following a ‘yes’ vote.  The media, striving to appear ‘balanced’ in their coverage of business issues in the debate, will likely continue to present the business and economic risks and opportunities of independence as more or less equal, irrespective of the evidence.