For over a decade, debates on nationalism and independence in Western Europe (and beyond) have been dominated by discussions on events in Catalonia and Scotland.   Paul Anderson writes on the impact of momentous events such as the 2014 and 2017 independence referendums, the 2016 Brexit vote and the experience and implications of the Covid-19 pandemic on the evolution of territorial politics in both cases.

Catalonia and Scotland: Nations in Flux

Published: 22 October 2024

By Paul Anderson

For over a decade, debates on nationalism and independence in Western Europe (and beyond) have been dominated by discussions on events in Catalonia and Scotland. In my recently published book, Territorial politics in Catalonia and Scotland: Nations in flux (Manchester University Press) I focus on five themes related to institutions and actors (self-rule and recognition, shared rule, the courts, state nationalism and independentism), to chart and compare developments in both cases over a ten year period (2010-2020). Drawing on a series of interviews I conducted with parliamentarians, politicians and civil society activists, I explore the impact of momentous events such as the 2014 and 2017 independence referendums, the 2016 Brexit vote and the experience and implications of the Covid-19 pandemic on the evolution of territorial politics in both cases. 

The analysis in the book highlights the significant self-rule wielded by Catalonia and Scotland but spotlights a pattern of creeping centralisation and central government encroachment on Catalonia and Scotland’s autonomy. In the case of Scotland, Brexit illuminated the centralist tendencies of the UK government and its ‘Westminster and Whitehall knows best’ mantra as it repeatedly passed legislation in Westminster – at times unilaterally altering the devolution settlement – notwithstanding the refused consent of the Scottish Parliament. In Catalonia, a similar tendency can be traced to the early development of the territorial model in the 1980s. Processes of centralisation were evident throughout the tenure of the centre-right Partido Popular government led by Mariano Rajoy (2011-2018). However, the Socialist Party (PSOE) has also shown a proclivity for centralisation since taking office in 2018, notably during the Covid-19 pandemic and the enactment of the ‘state of alarm’ to centralise health care powers from the autonomous communities. In light of vociferous critique by autonomous community presidents (notably not limited to the usual suspects in Catalonia and the Basque Country) the PSOE-led government opted for a model of ‘co-governance’, but as the discussion in the book makes clear, the structures did not quite live up to the rhetoric; hierarchical interaction dominated by the central government remained. 

While the pandemic was an extraordinary event necessitating close interaction and coordination between different levels of government, the arrival of the PSOE government in 2018 and its objective to dampen tensions between the Catalan and Spanish governments marked a change in approach towards intergovernmental relations (IGR) compared to the previous Rajoy administration. Intergovernmental interaction was reinstated, accompanied by a more conciliatory and somewhat accommodative tone to manage the constitutional deadlock between the governments. Akin to Spain, shared rule in the UK is an underdeveloped component of the territorial model, characterised by a territorially unrepresentative second chamber and weak IGR. The negotiation of the 2014 referendum by the Scottish and UK governments represented a triumph in IGR, but in the aftermath of the Brexit vote in 2016 relations substantially soured, coloured by the diametrically opposing and competing positions of the Scottish and UK governments. In both cases, there is much room for improvement to facilitate better and enhanced interaction between the central and subnational governments. 

The comparison of Spain’s Constitutional Court and the UK’s Supreme Court highlights contrasts in the plurinational sensitivity of the legal institutions as well as  the increased pattern of judicial activism that has taken place since 2010. This is much more notable in the case of Spain where recourse to the courts was the primary strategy of the Rajoy-led Spanish government in managing Catalan secessionist demands. Nonetheless, in Scotland post-2016 we witnessed a pattern of Brexit-related litigation, with some constitutionally significant judgements with long-lasting implications for the devolution model (e.g. the Miller case judgment on the Sewel Convention). In the case of Catalonia, the analysis highlights the challenges of the judicialisation of politics and politicisation of the judiciary that has taken place since 2010, while in the UK the discussion is more focused on the institutionalised asymmetry in the territorial system because of the doctrine of parliamentary sovereignty and its privileging of the Westminster Parliament over devolved legislatures.

The final two themes examined in the book relate to the state and minority nationalist movements in the two cases. Comparing the main statewide political parties, I examine the pro-federal discourse of parties most widely associated with the left and how this relates to their pro-union/pro-state integrity positions as well as the rise of more assertive and less accommodative territorial strategies for those parties on the right. The interview data here illuminates the tensions within these parties vis-à-vis territorial visions, electoral competition and the hurdles of political reality. 

A similar story of internal tensions emerges in the discussion of the pro-independence movements. The analysis charts the remarkable rise of pro-independence parties in both cases and compares the rationales behind the growth in secessionist support. The discussion also highlights the challenges for the movements in advancing their independence causes. Brexit, for example, reinvigorated the Scottish independence movement but it also somewhat complicated the case for independence, while in Catalonia internal disputes over independence strategy and policy coloured relations between the main nationalist parties. Analysis of the state and minority nationalist movements highlights the dynamism and fluidity of territorial politics in Catalonia and Scotland. For much of the period under study conservative governments were in power in Spain and the UK while pro-independence parties dominated in Catalonia and Scotland. The rise of the pro-independence movements evidently posed a threat to the continuation of the Spanish and UK states in their current forms, but as the analysis in the book illuminates, the dominance of an inflexible unionism in the UK and emergence of an increasingly intolerant right-wing Spanish nationalism posed as much a threat to the continuation of political partnership as Catalan and Scottish secessionism.

Building on the analysis of the two cases, the book concludes by discussing  how the territorial models in both cases could be reimagined. Through the lens of multinational federalism, I sketch  some potential avenues for reform. These include remodelling and enhancing structures and processes for IGR and redesigning the second chambers as well as a much-needed overhaul in central government mindsets towards their interactions with devolved institutions. In this vein, I call for a more plurinationally sensitive non-majoritarian political culture undergirded by a commitment to recognition, respect for diversity, mutual trust, partnership and parity of esteem to reset relations for the benefit of both minority and majority communities.

Punctuated by significant events often with long-lasting ramifications, the ten year period examined in the book was one of continuity, change and crisis. Over the decade, issues related to territorial politics increased in significance and at times dominated political debate not just in Catalonia and Scotland but across Spain and the UK too. Since 2020, developments in territorial politics have continued apace with personnel changes in leadership in Scotland, the election of a non-secessionist government in Catalonia, the re-election of the PSOE in Spain and a new Labour government in the UK. Seven years on from the 2017 independence referendum, recent polling in Catalonia has recorded declining support for independence. The momentum of the procés has certainly dissipated, but pro-independence parties still garner substantial support. Predictions of the demise of the independence movement are somewhat premature. In Scotland, a decade after the independence referendum support for independence remains around the 45% benchmark secured in 2014, notwithstanding the electoral resurgence of Labour and declining popularity of the SNP. Like Catalonia, the debate on independence is no longer at the forefront of political debate, but the issue has far from disappeared. The future constitutional trajectories of both Catalonia and Scotland remain unknown. Only one thing is certain: they will continue to be ‘nations in flux’.

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