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Daniel Cetrà discusses yesterday's gathering in Catalonia. He explains that the Catalan pro-independence camp remains highly mobilised and that the Catalan and Spanish political situations are complex and interconnected.

Hundreds of thousands of Catalans gathered yesterday in five cities, including Barcelona, to demand independence. It is the fifth consecutive year that, on the national day of Catalonia, the pro-independence camp takes the streets in huge numbers.

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My estimates of the implied probability of a “leave” outcome in the EU referendum using the bookies odds from Oddschecker.com have attracted much comment. Some critics seem to have a weak understanding of the nature of prediction markets. For example, the argument is put that probabilities derived from the betting odds are of no value because punters are not a representative sample of the population.

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