David Bell's blog
“If you're not confused, you're not paying attention.” Tom Peters
My estimates of the implied probability of a “leave” outcome in the EU referendum using the bookies odds from Oddschecker.com have attracted much comment. Some critics seem to have a weak understanding of the nature of prediction markets. For example, the argument is put that probabilities derived from the betting odds are of no value because punters are not a representative sample of the population.
While pollsters have the result of the UK's EU referendum as too close to call, the bookies have Remain comfortably ahead. Prof David Bell will be monitoring the odds through the remaining campaign with results updated here. Updated chart - 16 June 2016.
Update, April 26
The negotiations around adjustments to Scotland's block grant have been the subject of months of talks between the Scottish and UK governments. David Bell, David Eiser and David Phillips set out the main points of contention in this extended blog.