Posts by David Bell

The first shadow boxing for the post-Brexit trade talks has begun. Wholly predictable hackles have been raised by the US Ambassador, Woody Johnson, who has accused UK farming of being a “museum of agriculture” which should embrace chlorine-washed chicken and the feeding of growth hormones to cattle... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
This week, the ESRC-supported project “UK in a Changing Europe” issued a new report on the economic and political effects for the UK of a No Deal. This project uses a collection of experts in law, politics and economics drawn from across the UK. Its members were selected on merit, not on their... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
“If you're not confused, you're not paying attention.” Tom Peters Following Brexit, the UK will establish a new set of trade relationships. Agreements about the conduct of agricultural trade will form an important part of this new system. The devolved territories – Scotland, Wales and Northern... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
Since the EU referendum, the post-Brexit future for agricultural, regional and rural policies in the UK have been hotly debated. Few of these debates have taken account of the role of the devolved governments in relation to these policies. Although agriculture, regional and rural policy have been... Read more
Post type: Publication
On the eve of the EU referendum, David Bell sorts what we know from what we can only surmise.    Tomorrow, we will vote on whether the UK should leave the EU. This is a momentous decision which will affect both current and future generations living on these islands   A recurrent theme has been the... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
My estimates of the implied probability of a “leave” outcome in the EU referendum using the bookies odds from Oddschecker.com have attracted much comment. Some critics seem to have a weak understanding of the nature of prediction markets. For example, the argument is put that probabilities derived... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
How closely is our economy aligned with the EU? What do we get out of it? – How much do we pay? How much do we receive? This chapter analyses the economic position of the UK – and particularly Scotland – within the EU. Its geographic position is clearly on the periphery. But at least on one... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
New analysis by Prof David Bell, a CCC Fellow based at the University of Stirling, has concluded that those benefits newly devolved under the Scotland Act 2016, “are typically older, more likely to be single following the death of a partner, not in employment and heavily dependent on benefits and... Read more
Post type: Publication
While pollsters have the result of the UK's EU referendum as too close to call, the bookies have Remain comfortably ahead. Prof David Bell will be monitoring the odds through the remaining campaign with results updated here. Updated chart - 16 June 2016. Update, April 26 The latest data from the... Read more
Post type: Blog entry
The recent GERS figures for Scotland’s fiscal balance in 2014-15 were entirely predictable. For the first two quarters of that financial year, oil prices averaged around $100 per barrel. Revenues from North Sea oil were flowing strongly. During the next two quarters, the oil price averaged around $... Read more
Post type: Blog entry

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